TFP Column: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

(Contrary to logic and reason, I have decided to put new material up on this blog, but only in the form of the columns that I have done for the Toledo Free Press.  This is done for the benefit of those with time to waste, who likewise do not spend their time reading the website of this award winning weekly newspaper, and I will go back and add efforts that were published earlier this year.)

This particular effort was published on 4/24/2014.

At the end of the initial sign up period for the Affordable Healthcare Act, the Administration announced that the program had signed 7.1 million people up for health insurance (8 million in numbers released subsequently) and took their own “Mission Accomplished” victory lap. After all, 7 million was the number that the Non-partisan Congressional Budget Office predicted would be sold during the initial rollout before even it began, and without discussion as to why, became the benchmark by which both sides measured success.

The right was certainly quick enough to adopt it in the early days, attacking the chances of success after the dismal rollout problems of the web site and the all but epic failure of the federal exchange in the opening months of the sign up period. Subsequent performance, along with the apparent reticence of the government to release numbers on a timely basis, only fueled the confidence of failure in opponents and did little for the morale of supporters.

The left spent just as much time blaming the delays of the initial rollout, if not more, in what some might be considered to be whining attempts to excuse a failure that had yet to occur. Those who continued to assume any air of confidence were made out to be dreamers and losers who refused to face reality.

State Exchanges didn't do all that much to help the situation. While those in New York, Connecticut, Kentucky, Rhode Island, and Washington prospered; websites in Hawaii, Oregon, Maryland, and Vermont fared dismally. The general consensus of those tracking the numbers was that reaching the CBO goal was simply never going to happen.

As the deadline approached, Jay Carney and Kathleen Sebelius put the best face possible on the situation, but prepared us for the worst. The web site was better, traffic was improving, and people were getting insurance, so 'the number' wasn't as important in measuring success of the law.

Once victory had been declared however, the tune changed again. It was all about the number and nothing else. Sure, some still wanted to dispute the accuracy of the numbers released by the Administration, (I know, how could anyone fail to trust numbers released by the federal government?) but they were little more than malcontents.

In spite of the fact that the US Electorate largely has the attention span of a 5 year-old where the details of any story is concerned, these pundits and naysayers still attempt to contest the victory by disputing whether payment has been made (or will continue to be), whether those signing up were those whose insurance was canceled as a result of the law or previously uninsured, or the health and age of those who signed up. Interesting questions perhaps, but only to those tracking statistics in the government fantasy league.

But it was what no one was talking about that was interesting. Benjamin Disraeli is credited with the quote, “There are three types of lies … lies, damn lies, and statistics. Even the most cursory examination of the latter in this case point to a law with numbers that have largely ignored in favor of the 7 million. Speaking of ignored, if 7 million signed up, more than 22 million this year alone ignored the law and failed to sign up. What's more, the same CBO whose numbers awarded the victory to the ACA has now projected numbers going out into the year 2023. They tell us that going out those ten years, there will still be over 31 million people who still won't have health insurance.

If these numbers victory then, perhaps it can only be considered a Pyrrhic one. For those unfamiliar with the term, it comes from Greek King Pyrrhus who in victories over the Romans (280 and 279 BC) suffered such devastating troop losses in his victories that they were little better than defeat.

Then again, perhaps the 'statistics' reported on the ACA and the 'victory' declared by the current Administration require more than simple analysis. Perhaps they require the popular perspective inspired by George Lucas from “Star Wars” (from Episode VI, for the nitpickers); and that the victory declared is true, “... from a certain point of view”.

We're Sorry For The Slight Delay ...

Years of travel for work involved a considerable amount of time spent in airports; and while part of that involved getting from place to place, damn near as much involved dealing with the inevitable delays involved in the process.  The holidays, with their high volume of traffic and potentially inclement winter weather were especially troubling where this was concerned.

"We're sorry for the slight delay," was a gate area death knell sounded all too frequently over the years.  One which was inevitably followed by a plethora of somewhat plausible, but often feckless statements like:

• The airport (though not necessarily the one you're at) is under delay or closed due to weather 
• Your incoming aircraft has been delayed
• We're experiencing a mechanical problem with your aircraft

It didn't matter what this moderately pleasant voice was trying to tell you however, since airline gate agents are well-schooled in misstating, misleading, and misrepresenting any semblance of the truth if it means maintaining the peace amongst a largely barbarian hoard of travelers.  (Those with advanced degrees often later became political spokespeople or press secretaries.)   

When a lack of additional information (accurate or not) began to fray nerves and raise tempers, bringing the palpable level of tension at the gate to a level that would normally snap a bowstring, equally distressing information was dribbled out in tone that now seemed not only less compassionate, but wholly unrepentant:

• We've discover the problem with the aircraft, but are now waiting on a part
• The weather's opening up at the airport, but incoming flights await their own ATC (Air Traffic Control) release   
• The incoming aircraft finally departed, but our airport is now below minimums and your flight will be circling the airport if and when it gets here
• The aircraft has been repaired, but must now be refueled/de-iced before we can even hope to board  

As continued delay and obfuscation finally wore down the spirits of a once raging throng, they became little more than a dispirited and wretched mob that was now dropping to their knees in tearful supplication to whatever Deity they believed in for deliverance from their airline oppressors.  Undaunted and unrelenting in their misery disbursement, these tormentors sought to inflict a final bit of auditory suffering to a now utterly cowed collective of traveling human debris:

• The aircraft you're waiting for has finally arrived, but instead of here at A-4, it will now be departing out of G-22
• Our aircraft is now ready to depart, but unfortunately the delay incurred means that the original crew is now being placed on forced rest and we must await the arrival of a new crew before we can begin to board 
• We're awaiting final paperwork, but if it doesn't reach us in the next five minutes, we'll miss the only departure window currently available and will have to wait for the next one 

-------------------------------------

I'm reminded of those days of abuse and sadism a lot lately as I watch Kathleen Sebelius, Jay Carney, the 'Waiver Granter-in-Chief' tap dance their way through recent press conferences and Congressional hearings on the Affordable Healthcare Act.  Accurate information on the ACA seems harder to come by these days than were details on the Manhattan Project during WWII.  It would probably be easier to hack personal information out of the system than it is to get a straight numbers from anyone with a government-issued microphone on something as simple as how many have successfully completed the sign up process and made their first payment.  (Where's Julian Assange or Edward Snowden when you need the creepy little bastards?)

The information that has been released to date is so full of obvious evasion and equivocation as to be next to useless (though most seem so happy to get it that no one seems to mind).  Any 'facts' or 'numbers' handed out carry more caveats than the sales contract warranty coverage used at 'Fly By Night Motors'.  The closest we come to anything resembling 'facts' as opposed to government issued 'truth' is when Secretary Sebelius or the President announce a waiver or delay in implementation; which at least tells us that that some part of the law either doesn't work properly yet, greatly offends a powerful special interest group, or would produce politically detrimental press coverage before the 2014 election.

Unfortunately, the strategy that the government has learned from the airlines has proved far too successful these days with a largely uninformed public.  Constantly lied to and recognizing that we've long since lost control of this situation (and the future), most now placidly await the next tidbit of disinformation with the same vague expression that the have for the next divorce announcement or plastic surgery attempt going on in the Kardashian family.  Fed up with months of inactivity, many get so caught up in seeing any movement of the queue that they forget to look down and notice that it's pushing them ever closer to the cliff's edge.  So desperate are they to get even bad news, that they gladly swallow the rosy interpretations and 'glass half-full assurances' delivered with them, and refuse to look beyond the sophistry and deception contained in the absurd pronouncements being made.   

The only thing missing of course, is government adopting airline language itself (and maybe a version of that's next):

"We're sorry for the slight delay in the implementation of the Affordable Healthcare Act due to circumstances that should have been well within our control, but which we mostly believe are none of your damn business.  We're sorry for the inconvenience, but since there's nothing you can really do about it now ... not so much.  We expect no change in the situation soon and little more than bad news to pass on to you; so sit back, relax your crack, and we'll get around telling you what we want you to hear when we damn well feel like it."




 

The Heroes of Healthcare.gov

 

Since the roll-out on October 1st, we've heard little more from the mainstream media than stories on how badly the Healthcare.gov website rolled out (OK, stumbled and staggered out), how long it's taken to get to working even badly (rather than mostly not at all), and how much this largely ineffective website has cost (certainly over $600 million plus by now).  Even now, after the deadline has come and gone for the site to be 'repaired', the best that anyone with an IT background will say publicly about it is that though partially incomplete, it still leaves a lot to be desired.  (What they say privately is largely in an obscene version of 'geek speak', that's wholly unintelligible and largely unprintable.) 

Now before we look too harshly on the code writers responsible however, it should be pointed out that they are mostly contractors given contradictory and constantly altering design parameters by politicians and bureaucrats who have no experience in insurance, less in administrating health care, and none at all in website design. To say that the resulting SNAFU was probably the best that could be expected would be an understatement.  So while all of the charges that you've heard about how bad things are with Healthcare.gov are apparently true, I believe that there's more to the story and that the website designers are getting a bad rap.

Like Washington DC bureaucrats who quietly (and regularly) attempt to perpetuate monumental governmental inefficiency to keep our leaders from 'saving us to death', these unassuming geeks have apparently done all in their power to keep a website that could do incalculable damage to millions from launching or operating successfully. And what do they get for throwing themselves under the bus in the nation's defense; constant ridicule from the media, and abuse both sides of the aisle.  Distracted by stories where the website is concerned, the greater tragedy potential in website success is all but ignored.  The media spends its time arguing about how badly the band on deck is playing, while largely ignoring the fact that the Healthcare ship is sinking under this law.  

Robert Heinlein used to speak in his novels about TNSTAAFL (There's No Such Thing As A Free Lunch).  Where Health Care is concerned, this 'Payment' includes, but it not limited to:  

• Someone is going to have to pay for all those signing up who are being added to Medicaid rolls.  Whether it's Federal or State money, it's still taxpayer money.
• These Medicaid additions will put a strain on the system creating cues for doctors far longer than those currently considered a problem on the website.
• The lack of doctors will eventually force the government to raise Medicaid reimbursement rates to encourage greater doctor participation and ease the strain; further adding to the taxpayer cost of that program.
• Insurance rates are already increasing for many of those going on the sites (Federal and State) more than expected, since the greater coverage mandated in the ACA naturally includes greater costs.
• Small employers sooner, and eventually larger ones, will begin to drop employee coverage or likewise increase employee costs in order to reach ACA compliance.
• Smaller network availability for those going through the website is likely to send it through the same fiscal spiral as Medicaid; quickly increasing rates and subsidies (and at the same time, debt and taxes). 

The day will come in the not-so-distant future when we will be forced to recognize the delaying action fought by these noble nerds for its true value.  (Can you say "Battle of Britain"?)  Sowing contention, confusion, and obfuscation; while fighting in the only way they knew how while fulfilling their limited contractual role, it's these efforts that may someday be recognized for providing us the time to create a winning strategy to seal a final victory over the ACA.  

I can see a shining day ahead, where some may even be awarded a coveted Presidential Pocket Protector of Freedom for their largely unheralded service.  All of them however, will have earned the thanks of a grateful nation for turning grossly ineffectual efforts into epically failing ones.

As a student of history and a libertarian who hopes that the ACA is a doomed bit of government overreach, I am humbled by the chance to salute the gallant geeks of Healthcare.gov for their heroic efforts in the current struggle.

It's A Matter Of Trust

Some love is just a lie of the heart
The cold remains of what began with a passionate start
And they may not want it to end
But it will it's just a question of when

Some love is just a lie of the soul
A constant battle for the ultimate state of control
After you've heard lie upon lie
There can hardly be a question of why 

("A Matter of Trust" by Billy Joel)

I'm not sure of Mr. Joel's politics, or whether he'd approve of my use of his words in this fashion, but his 1986 song began to stick in my head last night as the reports of HHS Secretary Kathleen Sibelius' performance before a Congressional Committee and the President made a Boston road trip and attempted to dig himself out of the hole he's recently discovered surrounding the place where the Affordable Healthcare Act used to sit as 'settled law'.

There are those with far more established credentials than yours truly regarding the Washington and Boston events.  My interest ... actually my disappointment, is more far-reaching than with one law and far deeper than with one Administration (though the current occupant of the White House seems determined to double down on distortion at every opportunity).  

My disenchantment could go back as far as Bush '41.  "Read my lips. No new taxes." cost the elder Bush an entire term's worth of credibility, and inevitably an election.  It should have.  What he said was disingenuous and ultimately to be a lie.  Maybe you can excuse the elder Bush as trying to go along to get along with a difficult to get along with Congress (All in the spirit of compromise, right?); but ultimately, it was his broken promise. 

His successor parsed the truth so finely that it all but disappeared for a time in this country.  Clinton wasn't the first to have an affair in office, nor was he even the most creative where his Oval Office peccadilloes were concerned.  His on-camera denials during interviews and the feeble defense of trying to redefine "is" during a deposition however, did neither the man nor the office any credit for truth or authenticity.

As for 'Bush the Younger', while I can't necessarily fault him for the misinterpreted data on 'Weapons of Mass Destruction' that were universally accepted at the time, I can however register my discontent over the breach of the public trust that was the "Patriot Act", and his beginning the eras of 'Too Big To Fail' and the 'Corporate Bailout'.

The current resident however, appears to have cornered the market on mistrust, bringing a level of deception back to the White House not seen since Richard Nixon. 

It was bad enough when we were handed a flimsy story about a YouTube video after the attack on the Consulate in Benghazi.  No one seemed to care about another troubled tale from the Mideast and the prevarication of the video allowed most an excuse to ignore it.  Unfortunately, the unnecessary and off-repeated fiction of the UN Ambassador, the Secretary of State, and the President eventually changed the narrative from one of error and strategic misjudgment to one of shameless fabrication and cover up.

The handling of Top Secret material by the NSA and its subsequent release by Wiki-leaks and the British Press had the nation wondering whether the government could hold on to the truth (when occasionally it stumbled over it), let alone keep it secret.  Attacking members of the AP and Fox News instead of the perpetrators didn't help their credibility.  Lying to FISA courts to go after these reporters however, once again changed the tone of the story and made it not about security, but instead about trust.

If it wasn't the NSA it was the IRS, not that anyone actually trusts them to tell the truth; but the confirmed reports now appear to show the government using this nefarious bureaucracy to attack political opponents in the days running up to the last Presidential election.  The stories on whether such activity was going on, how widespread it was, and at what level it was being controlled continue to change on a daily basis.  While we still don't know the whole story yet, we do know that both the Press and Congress were being given the facts that should have earned their presenters a Pulitzer, if not an Academy Award. 

But this tale started today with the ACA; a subject for which the list of falsehoods is becoming too long to accurately keep track of.  Misstatements about how ready the website was for roll out, its actual (and final) cost, even when it will finally be fixed, vary wildly.  Heath plans that we were told were 'grandfathered in' apparently weren't, but union 'Cadillac Plans' that were supposed to rate a penalty now appear to have been given status that individual plans weren't.  A law that we were told would apply equally to those in the White House and Congress now has special subsidies and now no longer does.  The employer mandate of this 'settled law' is rewritten by a stroke of the President's pen, but the individual mandate (and its 'tax') remains whether you can obtain the product you are legally obligated to within the allotted time or not. 

Well then, who's responsible for these prevarications and misrepresentations, the falsehoods and fabrications that have become increasingly associated with the ACA.  Apparently the Republicans are, in spite of having failed to cast a single vote for its passage in either house.  Not wanting it implemented is evidently the same thing as lying about it.  The website contractors are to blame for lying about the system's lousy roll out.  Private insurance companies appear to be liars because they're obeying ACA regulatory statutes written by the HHS that force them to cancel your policy.  Finally, you're to blame for apparently lying about the problems you've experienced with the website, fibbing about the amount of time you're wasting to gather information, and telling falsehoods about the promises that were made to you and now appear to have been broken. (For shame on you!) 

Future Oval Office residents and their press secretaries will curse this Administration in the years ahead, not for what they've done, but for sowing the seeds of mistrust amongst the Press Corps and the American people.  As for the rest of our lying masters in Washington DC, they may not have invented the concepts of deception, but they're trying to patent it while attempting to turn it into an art subsidized form.  To paraphrase a former Toledo Mayor (who cannot be named):  "This law is full of half-truths, mistruths, and outright lies".

If there's a bright side to the deceit, distortion, and disinformation being generated in Washington DC these days however, it's that the growing stench of mistrust that the Obama Administration has created may have done what neither the abuses of previous White House residents (Republican and Democrat alike) nor the rise of the Tea Party could have.  The paucity of truth coming from Washington may finally have become so egregious that the electorate may finally be pissed off enough to do something about the lying bastards (and bitches) to whom we grant the reins of government. 

This taint has reached the point where it's no longer about the fictitious narrative delivered by Barack Obama and his minions.  Now it's just a matter of trust; and based on the latest polls, no one outside of Washington trusts anyone inside of it ... no matter what they say.

 

Halloween Costumes - 2013

While this effort has already been picked up by the Toledo Free Press with both it's local Toledo-oriented entries as well as National suggestions,  I thought that it would be worthwhile however for those who might not understand the local  Glass City references to post only those costume ideas that had national implications here.  Besides, there always seems to be additions to this annual effort as the week of its  creation progresses (as a matter of fact, additions have already been made since this was originally posted.), and the TFP has both space and modification restrictions that must be respected.  If you check back later this week therefore, you're likely to discover additions to this entry that you missed earlier.  

Here is the link to the Toledo Free Press website effort that includes the Toledo specific entries as well as most of the national ones.

Halloween is almost upon us, though there's still plenty of time to choose a costume. For those of you who remain 'costume-challenged' for this all-important candy grab however, we here at “Just Blowing Smoke” have once again come up with our annual list of politically-oriented (and politically incorrect) suggestions that could make you the hit of your neighborhood, if not a viral source of public ridicule on Facebook and YouTube.
 

• Place some orange cones on your driveway and install a flimsy gate across the sidewalk leading to your front door with a broken lock and a newly painted 'Closed' sign hanging from it. Leave your porch light on however to encourage participants to push past these feeble barriers. When revelers ring the bell and say 'Trick or Treat', tell them they shouldn't be there but give them candy anyway. If asked about this apparently contradictory behavior, tell them you're the National Park Service.
• Take a big piece of plastic sheeting and paint a wavy blue line across it.  Wrap it around yourself and fasten it together; then make your neighborhood begging rounds.  When asked, tell them that you're a glass, and you think you're half-empty.  What do they think?
• Wear a nice suit and.Trick or Treat from door to door while weeping and mumbling logically contradictory statements on the state of the nation and laws that should be passed as if nobody is listening (they won't be). When asked, wipe a tear from your eye and stammer 'God bless America', before telling them you are Speaker of the House John Boehner. 
• Trick or Treat from door to door, carrying either a recently minted dog turd or freshly filled diaper to sniff right before the door is answered. When residents note your pinched, rather constipated expression and ask about your costume, tell them you are Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and refuse to accept any candy they offer you.
• Wear a piece of poster board on your chest with the neatly printed words: “We are experiencing technical difficulties, please stand by ...” as you walk your neighborhood route. When asked, tell them that you are the 'Affordable Healthcare Website', take their candy, and apologize for not being able to give them anything in return; requesting that they try again later (after all, it's settled law) before moving on.
• Trick or Treat from door to door spouting the most wild, illogical, and even insane beliefs about the news at the top of your voice; making sure to periodically blame Republicans as the cause of the world's ills. When asked, tell them you're a show host for MSNBC.
• Trick or Treat the neighborhood and give the normal greeting when the door is answered. When homeowners attempt to speak however, interrupt their attempts to do so as foolish while disparagingly insisting that you know best about everything and insist that you are only taking their candy 'for the folks'. You will, of course, be masquerading as Fox News host Bill O'Reilly; and should be ashamed of yourself for providing him even that much attention.
• Wear whatever you want in while making your Trick or Treat rounds.  When asked who you're supposed to be and what you've done, tell them you're a member of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). When they explain that they don't know who that is, tell them that neither does anyone else, but that you're charged with cleaning up the poison gas in Syria and that you haven't actually done much of anything yet ... except for winning this year's Nobel Peace Prize.  
• Come to think of it, if you would like to Trick or Treat your neighborhood in a formal tuxedo with tails and can speak with a Norwegian or Swedish accent (I use the Swedish cook one from Sesame Street), you can go as a member of the Nobel Peace Prize Committee.  When they answer the door, give them one of the little blue ribbons you'll need to carry and explain that these days you're giving out the prize to damn near anyone whether they've ever done anything or not.  
• Wear something business casual and carry a clipboard full of computer printouts, along with your 'Trick or Treat' bag.  When homeowners answer the door, page through the list 'harrumphing', while telling them you're from the NSA and they shouldn't feel obligated to give you a special reward not to release the information they've gathered on you. 
• Kick a can from house to house on your Trick or Treat route and lethargically hold out your bag when the door is answered.  If questioned on your costume or your lousy attitude, tell homeowners you're a member of the new Congressional Budget Conference Committee and you're as optimistic of success in your coming Congressional efforts as you are of getting $20 bills from them for a 'Treat'.
• Drag out that old zombie costume from your 'Thriller' days but carry around a newspaper delivery bag instead of a Trick or Treat bag.  When those on your route ask about your costume, you might have to explain that it's the daily newspaper and not the carrier who's all but dead; but most will get the message. 
• If you want to really scare everyone however, you may dress however you'd like and carry a sign around your neck with the old Ronald Reagan quote about "the nine most terrifying words in the English language":  "We're from the government and were here to help."
• Wear a pair of jeans, flannel shirt, and cowboy hat; while also wearing President Obama masque on your 'Trick or Treat' rounds.  When asked, tell them that you are an out-of-work rodeo clown.  
• Walk your neighborhood in whatever you'd like and when the houses in the neighborhood answer their doors, mumble "Trick or Treat" in a disgruntled voice.  When asked about your attitude and costume (or lack of it), tell them that you are a non-essential federal employee, and were much happier when still at home watching "The View" on the shutdown's paid vacation.
  (By the way those of you actually capable of doing this should be ashamed ... not for enjoying the paid vacation, but of watching "The View".)
• Refuse to dress up, Trick or Treat, or decorate your house for Halloween; but buy a bunch of candy and leave your porch light on to encourage neighborhood participation in the festivities. When Trick or Treaters arrive, smile and engage them pleasantly, but refuse to give them any of the clearly visible candy you possess. When asked about this apparent contradiction, tell them you're a member of Congress and you're intention is to keep all the goodies for yourself.